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Are values really going down in San Diego? My name is Kyle Whissel with Whissel Realty Group. And today we're going to talk about what's going down in the San Diego real estate market in August of 2022. And as I started this video with, is the market really going down, yep, it really is going down for the first time in a long time. This is going to be a little different type of market update. We haven't talked about the market going down in years, many, many years since we've seen this. And so the media is probably not reporting this so much. The media tends to be a little bit behind on things.
What we're seeing, we're still actively selling 20, 30 homes a week on our team here at Whissel Realty Group. So really have our finger on the pulse of what's actually happening today in the market, not what happened a month or two ago, like the media talks about. We're talking about what's going down right now in the San Diego market. We have seen values dip about 5% over the last 90 days.
We've seen a 5% dip over the last 90 days. And what's causing that? Well, what's causing that is interest rates. What's causing that is inflation. And what we have found is that inflation tends to drive interest rates. When inflation goes up, then the Fed raises their rates. Mortgage rates tend to go up when the Fed raises their rates. And so we saw mortgage rates at the beginning of this year in the 3 to 4% range.
Now we're seeing them in the 5 to 6% range. So anytime you have mortgage rates go up, what we have found is every one point that mortgage rates change, it changes your affordability about 10%. So if you were looking at getting $1 million loan and rates jump a percent, now you're probably getting a $900,000 loan and maintaining a similar payment. So because you've seen rates go from three to four to five to six, that is impacted people by about 20%, maybe 30% on the high end of what their affordability is. As a result, we're starting to see some values slide.
And so some of the data that we really like to look at, the number of new listings that have come onto the market for sale, that's down a little over 20% from the same time a year ago. So you would say, well, there's less new listings on the market. Shouldn't that mean supplies coming down? Well, normally, but what we've also seen is that the number of pending listings, or number of listings that have had an offer accepted, that's down over 34%. So what's happening. Yes, there's less listings on the market, but there's even less buyers buying those listings. And so if you're wondering, like, why are new listings down? Well, the reason that's happening is a lot of homeowners, they own their current home, they have a rate in the 2, 3, 4% range. And if you go to sell that home today and upgrade, well, you're going to be leaving behind your low rate and you're going to be coming into today's rate, which is in the fives, or, you know, maybe even sixes depending on when you watch this video.
So that's held a lot of people back from selling that would normally sell. And that's why you're seeing the new listings come down. And the pendings is obvious, as we talked about rates are up. So that's cut a lot of buyers out of the market. Other things we like to look at, supply of homes for sale. That's up about 50% from the same time a year ago. So you a lot more homes on the market, and it's taken longer to sell on average for about 22 days right now. But that's growing pretty quickly as far as the amount of time that it takes to sell a home. So what does this really mean, right? Like this is a lot going on, and now I'm recording this Wednesday, August 10th, there were some big news that came out today. Values have started to slide, but there was a lot of good news that was reported today.
For the first time in a long time, mortgage, or I'm sorry, inflation has come down. And not just come down a little, it came down more than it was expected. The Fed expected, or I'm sorry, the economist expected inflation to come in, it was 9.1 a month ago, it was expected to come in at 8.7. It came in at 8.5. So it came in far lower than what was expected. Then there's a secondary type of inflation called core inflation, which removes some of the volatile things like food and energy.
That was expected to go from 5.9 up to 6.1. And it actually stayed at 5.9. So both the headline or the overall CPI and the core CPI beat the economist expectations by about 0.2%. When that happens, that's a good sign inflation's starting to come back. So rates that did peak out in the low sixes in June, they started to pull back into the fives in July. And I think here in August, as this news has some time to spread, you might see some rates in the fours. I know we're starting to see some VA and FHA rates in the fours, and you might even see those conventional rates get back down into the fours. So what I'm seeing right now is this is really for you. If you were thinking about buying, buy now, buy now. You're probably like, why, values are going down? I don't think they're going to go down for long.
I think this is a temporary little dip in the market. But when interest rates get back down into the fours, inflation starts to pull back, optimism starts to come back into the market, which means the buyers come back and they start buying again. So where you've seen the pendings, which is how many new buyers are coming into the market buying homes, is down about 34%. A lot of that number I think is going to improve, which means you're going to start seeing buyers come back to the table now that they can get rates in the fours and fives. And so I think as that happens, the buyers start to come back, you're going to start to see those prices flatten out initially, which I think will probably happen around Q4. And then in Q1 of '23, I think you'll start to see values come back up again.
So I think there's this little temporary law, I think there's this six month window as a buyer that you're going to have to capitalize, because here's what you do have right now as a buyer, you have a lot of choices and you have the ability to negotiate because there's before where there was one home for sale and there was 10 people offering on it. Now there might be 10 homes for sale and nobody offering on it. So now you can come and pick and choose the home you want and get the terms you want. If you need credits towards closing costs or to pay some debts off, if you're a VA buyer, you can do that. You can get an inspection, you don't have to pay over the appraise value. You don't have to pay all cash. You have a lot more control right now as a buyer. Strongly recommend you take advantage of this market.
I don't know that this is going to be here to stay. I think it's probably going to be a little window. Take advantage of it while it lasts 'cause it might not be here forever. And if you're thinking about selling your home, well, there's a lot of different scenarios. If you're thinking about selling and getting out of town, hey, do what you got to do, right? If you don't like the political climate here or it's just too damn expensive, cool, let's do it. I'll help you figure out what you could sell your home for before it slides anymore. And let's make that move happen. The one scenario that doesn't make sense right now is to sell and go rent. If you haven't paid attention, rent is stupid. It's flat out stupid. I just rented a property that I own up in Alpine.
It's a manufactured home on a half acre. Manufactured three bedroom, two bath home, 1200 square feet. I had it previously rented for two grand, and that tenant moved out. We brought it to market rent, which we thought was four grand, which seemed crazy to me. Well, guess what? We had a line of people that wanted it at four grand. It ended up renting at 4,200. People are bidding on rentals right now, it's insane. And they're driving rent prices up. A buddy of mine just rented a two bedroom condo in La Mesa, listed it for 3,000. He got bid up to $3,300. So people are bidding up rentals right now, how they were bidding up houses.
So if you're thinking you're going to sell and rent, that's what you're going to be stepping into. I don't know if I would want to do that if I were you. So if you're thinking about buying, thinking about selling, or you just want to have a conversation about the market, you need a little guidance on what you need to do, give us a call, shoot us a text at the number down below. We'll get you all dialed in. I'm Kyle Whissel with Whissel Realty Group. Thanks for watching.
