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I'm Jeremy McHone with the Whissel Realty Group and I just wanted to shoot a quick video to discuss what's happening in the San Diego County real estate market right now. Here we are at the very end of January, so January's final numbers haven't come out yet, but there's still plenty to talk about. So the first thing that most people ask me about is pricing. What's happening with prices in San Diego County? So we typically measure that in median home price. So let's talk about what's happening with the median home prices in the county. Median home prices in San Diego County peaked in May of 2022 at 855,000. Since then, they've been steadily declining, and they've bottomed out right around December of 2022. So they were at 855. They've been declining. In November of 2022, the median home price in San Diego County was at 750,000. In December of 2022, it dropped down to 749,000. So roughly the same $1,000 drop. And then so far in January, for homes that have sold in January, the median home price has been 750,000. So for the last three months, prices have held pretty steady in that time. Now, of course, the question then becomes is the market going to stabilize and then go back up? Or is it going to stabilize for a couple months and go back down? Obviously we don't know that 'cause that's in the future, but what we can do is we can look at some of the leading indicators that suggest where the market might be going. One of those indicators right now is just inventory, the number of homes for sale in San Diego County. Now this might come as a surprise, but the number of homes for sale in San Diego County is actually at a 10-year low right now. So there's just not a lot of homes for sale on the market in the county. The other thing to look at is what we've been seeing with mortgage applications this year.

So since the beginning of 2023, the number of people applying for a mortgage has actually started to increase. So two weeks ago we saw a huge jump, a 27% jump in the number of mortgage applications, and then a jump of 7% the following week. So what does that mean? That means more people are applying for home loans, which is a leading indicator of where supply might be going. So that suggests, that we're going to see more buyers start to enter the market. Which makes sense because not only have prices stabilized in the county, but we've also started to see more buyers coming into the market. So just anecdotally, we're seeing more turnout at our open houses, more showings at our listings, and we're starting to see multiple offers on listings that just hit the market. And stale listings that have been on the market for a while are finally starting to get more showings and get more offers. I had a home that was on the market for a few months and as soon as the new year changed, all of a sudden we started to see way more showings than we'd been seeing for the last few months before that. So we're starting to see more buyer activity right now, which makes sense when you see more people applying for home loans. So what does that mean moving forward? Well, if inventory stays low like it is right now and more buyers enter the market, we should start to see those buyers start to shrink the inventory, which means that we'll start to see prices potentially start to come up in the next few months. Now, is that going to happen? Obviously again, nobody knows.

But the leading indicators are pointing to the fact that the market's starting to pick back up. We're seeing more buyers enter the market. We're seeing homes go pending faster and more often. And we're still seeing low inventory. Now a lot of what happens in the future is going to be determined by interest rates. So if interest rates start to go down like they have been in the last few months, we should see more buyers enter the market.

However, the other question is how many homes are going to be up for sale? 'Cause there's definitely a lot of homeowners right now that aren't listing their home for sale, because if they do, they're going to go from a 2 or 3% interest rate to a 6% interest rate, and that's holding a lot of people back, which is probably why we're seeing this historically low inventory right now. So if prices start to drop, we might also see inventory increase as more homeowners are willing to sell their home to get into a different interest rate. Now, if you have questions about what's happening in the market or what it means for you, drop a comment below, or just shoot me a text or give me a phone call at 971-0791.

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