The real estate market is always changing, and it can be tough to keep up with the latest trends. In this video, San Diego Realtor Kyle Whissel will take a look at what you can expect from the 2023 real estate market. We'll discuss everything from interest rates to rental prices, so that you can start preparing for the future!
What's going to happen in the San Diego real estate market in 2023? My name is Kyle Whissel with Whissel Realty Group. In today's video, I want to share my predictions with you of what I believe is going to happen in the real estate market here in San Diego in 2023. For perspective, I've got an econ degree from University of California San Diego. Been in this industry for 20 plus years, sold 4,000 plus homes over $3 billion worth.
So I've got a good grasp on what's going on in the real estate market, and I really want to help you understand what we think is going to happen in 2023 so that you can make the right decision for you and for your family. So where are we at as we head into 2023? We are in a declining market. Values have been coming down. We peaked out in the month of April where the median price for a single family home came in at right at $1 million for a single family home. So we peaked out at a million dollars in April. We have been declining ever since.
We, by the time 2022 is over, we'll be down somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 to 14% by the time the year is over from where we were at in April. Now, the media sometimes is going to tell you where we are at year over year, which is actually still up a little bit but don't pay attention to that year over year number. We need to pay attention to what's been happening over the last six months not what we're where we were at an entire year ago. So we've come down 12, 14%, somewhere in that range. So what's going to happen in 2023? Well, my prediction of what's going to happen is things are going to turn around and I'm going to tell you why.
The whole reason this entire thing happened, the reason we've declined 12 to 14% in 2022 since April is interest rates. Beginning of 2022, you could get a mortgage around 3 to 4%. At the end of 2022, you're looking at a rate in the six to 7% range. So mortgage rates have more than doubled. As a result, that has caused a lot of people to get out of the game and sit on the sidelines. Well, when people sit on the sidelines, people don't buy homes. When people don't buy homes, home values go down. So that's where we're at.
But why did interest rates increase the way that they did? This is what the media doesn't talk about enough. Well, the reason that the interest rates went up as much as they did is because inflation went up a ton. Well, mortgage rates follow inflation rates. So we had inflation peak out at over 9% this summer. As a result, mortgage rates peaked out at over 7%. But CPI or inflation is coming down. If you hear the term CPI, inflation, they're usually interchangeable. CPI stands for Consumer Price Index. That is starting to fall. That fell significantly when the November numbers were reported. It's going to fall significantly when the December numbers are reported and as inflation starts to fall, mortgage rates are going to fall with it. Well, as mortgage rates fall, all those buyers who are sitting on the sidelines, they're going to get back in the game.
Well, when the buyers start getting back in the game, homes start selling again, values start to turn around. So my prediction for 2023 is you're going to see inflation drops significantly. I think by the time 2023 is over, you'll see inflation somewhere around four to 5% which is still not where we ultimately want to be. We want to get that down to two or 3% but we're not going to get there overnight, right? Rome wasn't built overnight. We're not going to fix inflation overnight but we're going in the right direction. So as we continue to go in the right direction, interest rates are going to go in the right direction. Buyers are going to get back in the game.
So what I believe you're going to see happen is we're going to continue to slide, we're going to continue to go down in quarter one. I think by quarter two we'll start to level out, and by quarter three we'll start to pick things back up again. So at the end of the day, where were you going to be at a year from now when we're talking about where the market's at? Probably relatively flat because we're going to go down, we're going to flatten out, toward the end of the year, we're going to pick back up again. So I don't think you're going to see a significant year over year change when we go December 22 to December 23. In my prediction, you're going to be in the zero to 5% positive range. Yeah, I said positive. I don't think we're going to continue to decline all the way through 23. I think as rates get back into fives, very likely getting back into the fours, the buyers are getting back in the game and things turn around.
But it's not going to really be seen until the closings start happening in Q2, Q3, Q4. So my personal prediction, you're going to see values about the same, if not slightly higher, one year from today. So what does that mean? What should you be doing? If you're thinking about buying home, if you're thinking about selling? One, if you're thinking about buying buy now, get in the game now before all the other buyers get back in the game. Huge opportunity. You're going to look back. You're going to kick yourself for not getting in the game when you didn't have a lot of competition because being a buyer with a lot of killing petition is not a lot of fun.
So get in the game now. Yeah, you're going to take a higher rate but you're going to refinance that thing in six to 12 months from now, get a much lower rate and be very happy 'cause you're in the home you want while everybody else is fighting to get in a home a lot of times ending up where they don't really want to be. And if you're thinking about selling, the answer is, it depends. Are you going to sell and are you going to move out of state?
Are you going to sell and you going to move up? Are you going to sell, move down? Maybe you're getting a little older, you need a little help, assisted living, memory care. The answer is, it really depends if you're selling. So whether you're thinking about buying, or whether you're thinking about selling, we'd love to be your guide, help you make the right decision for you and for your family. Give us a call, shoot us a text at the number down below. We'll set up a free complimentary strategy session with you to help you make the right decision in 2023. My name is Kyle Whissel with Whissel Realty Group. Thanks for watching.
