What is happening in the San Diego real estate market in January 2022? San Diego realtor Kyle Whissel goes over the market-leading indicators. Discussing housing inventory, prices, and his predictions of where the market is heading.
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What's going on in the San Diego real estate market, January 2022? We're going to answer that question today.
My name is Kyle Whissel, owner of Whissel Realty group here in San Diego. And we're going to talk a little bit about what's going on in the real estate market, which is changing a lot. It's crazy, crazy, crazy right now.
So let's dive in to a few of the important numbers that we like to track. And the numbers we like to track are very different from the ones the media tracks. The media tracks things that have already happened in the past. Oftentimes three to four months in the past. We focus on what's happening today. The stuff the media is not going to report for three to four months from now. So we're trying to give you that inside scoop, get you ahead of the competition, so you can make the right decision for you and for your family.
1. New Homes For Sale
So, number one thing we like to look at is the number of new listings that have come onto the market for sale. That number is down 27% from this same time a year ago. That means there's a lot less sellers putting their homes on the market.
2. Homes Going Under Contract/Pending
On the other side of it, what's happening with buyers? Well, the number of homes that have gone pending or have gone under contract, off the market, that's down 14%.
So both of these are coming down, but the number of new listings is coming down further than number of pending listings.
What that's doing is it's contracting the supply of homes for sale. So much so that we're now 60% down from this same time, a year ago. 60% less homes on the market. In fact, we're sitting at 0.4 months worth of homes for sale right now. What that means is that if no more homes came up for sale, based on the rate homes are selling, we'd run out of homes in 12 days.
There's literally nothing out there right now.
I've done this for 15 plus years, and this is the lowest supply of homes for sale that I've ever seen as a real estate agent. And, as you could imagine, when there's less homes for sale, homes are selling a lot faster. So they're actually selling 12% faster than they were the same time a year ago.
So, giving you a lot of information, what does this mean for you?
Thinking of Buying A Home In San Diego?
Well, if you're thinking about buying a home, which you have to understand, you're looking at homes right now, it's a little bit scary, right? You're looking and homes are selling within a day, a week, they're selling super, super fast. It's kind of scary. And you know, if you're working with a real estate agent, whether it's somebody from our team or another team, they're telling you, you're going to have to come in, you're going to have to offer over list price, which is terrifying.
I actually bought a home in 2021 myself. And when I bought that home, I was terrified as well. It's kind of scary, right? You feel like, oh my gosh, am I buying at the top? You know, is the market going to crash? Well, given what's happening with the market right now, there is only one way that prices can go, and that's going to be up. And in all honesty, it's going to go straight up, right now. Because you have such a shortage of supply.
Prices are a factor of supply and demand. The demand is there, there's just not enough supply to meet that demand. So I'm extremely bullish on home values going up in 2022. And when I say going up, we're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 to 18%, if I had to predict based on what I know today, and in my 15 plus years of experience. Now I bought my home in June of last year. It's already worth over 20% more than what I paid for it, in June, a year ago.
So sure, when I bought it, I probably was in the same boat you're in today, where you're thinking like, oh my gosh, am I paying too much? This is so much money. I don't know. Now I'm looking back, what are we talking seven months? And I'm already up 20% on the value of that home. Now I'm laughing at how silly it was to think that price was crazy back in June.
You're going to be in that same boat. I know you're going to be looking, and it's going to be a little bit scary that you got to come in at such a high price, but given the market conditions six months from now, 12 months from now, you're going to be really good that you pulled the trigger.
So just be prepared, you're not going to just pay list. You're going to pay above the list price. In a perfect world, you're going to have enough money, to not only cover a down payment, but potentially cover an appraisal shortage. Maybe the homeowner appraised for the price you want to offer. You're going to have to cover that. So be prepared for that, again, our team we'd love to help guide you through that process. I'll give you a phone number to connect with us at the end.
Thinking of Selling Your Home In San Diego?
On the flip side, what if you're thinking about selling right now? Well, I just told you prices are going to continue to shoot up.
So here's what you got to decide, if you're thinking about selling, and going and renting right now, I think that's a horrible idea. Rents are going up crazy fast. I believe the latest number I saw, rents went up 16 or 17% in the last 12 months. 16 or 17%. Rents. And I'm telling you, I think houses are going to go up 12 to 18%.
So do you want to go rent something, where rent prices are going up?
Or do you want to own something, where home prices are going up?
Which one do you want to be holding?
Do you want to be giving all the money to the landlord, letting them take advantage of the appreciation, or do you want to take advantage of it?
So I don't recommend selling if you're thinking of renting.
If you thinking about selling and going out of state, hey, by all means, right? Market's pretty much like this in all parts of the country. So if you're going to sell here, going out of state, do what you got to do, that makes sense.
Or the one that really makes sense, is this is a good opportunity for you to sell and move up right now. Cause here's what we're seeing, the lower, the price point, the higher the competition, we're getting much crazier prices for the lower price point homes. As you start getting up to that middle upper rank home, there's a little bit less competition. So you're in a scenario where you're selling, where there's a ton of competition, and you're buying where there's a little bit less competition. So you get to take advantage of that opportunity. And the thing you got to know is, prices are going to keep going up.
So do you want to hold the lower priced home, or the higher price home? I probably want to hold the higher price home, if I was in your shoes. So if you're exploring a move, whether it's buying or selling, we'd love to be your guide, help guide you through that process. Give us a call, shoot us a text at the number down below to get connected with my team, and we can help you take that first step, next step, last step to getting you into home ownership here in San Diego.
